Tzefa

Priscilla, Lieutenant Colonel of the Desert... ( http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109045/ )

Some fog 'o war for ya: http://www.timesofis...clear-facility/

To be fair, this photo is actually from Iraq, despite the hebrew in the red boxes. I'm quite sure that's an AAV in the background on the right. On the other hand, palestinians do use ambulances to transport rockets and terrorists. Here's and IDF UAV camera frame of a UN ambulance in Gaza: Here's a video of a bunch of armed men getting into an ambulance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRmYYSp0-B8

First rule of the middle east club - anything you do, will end up a bloody mess

BTW I don't think that targeting Jabari was related to Iran. Killing Hamas leaders is like mowing the grass, someone already took his place, and overall the situation hasn't changed that much. Had we actually went into Gaza, and seriously diminished Hamas' capabilities at least on the same level as happened in Cast Lead 4 years ago, then it would make sense - we'd take them out of the upcoming multi-front war. But that did not happen, we're still at the same status quo.

If you read up on post revolution Iran, and its relationship with the States (one excellent book that was mentioned here is The Twilight War by David Crist for example), I think you'll see that crazy rhetoric aside, they are relatively rational... in their own way. They realize their limitations, and I don't think they confuse between Israel and the US at all. They avoided direct conflict with the US during the '80s when US was helping Iraq, which was a far more serious threat for Iran than Israel bombing Frodo and Natanz. If Iran is attacked, I think they will: - strike back at Israel directly with whatever ballistic missiles they have. - use the Hezballah and Hamas to attack Israel. - launch a long-term terror campaign aimed at israelis/jews abroad, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and americans in the Middle East, again using Hezballah and other proxies. - try to disrupt shipping in the Gulf, by laying minefields and attacking tankers with missile boats, etc., I think they won't attack US bases or forces directly. They will not want to escalate the conflict to the point of open war with America, because they can only lose it, with nothing to gain. A war with Israel can actually have many benefits, most importantly probably the population rallying behind their leadership. A war with the US might bring much more serious consequences on the other hand, and destabilize the regime. This whole situation is potentially existential for Israel, but not so for Iran. The worst result from an israeli strike is a setback for their nuclear program - it will not threaten their statehood or even the regime's survival. They've no reason to make a life-or-death stand against the Great Satan over it, especially not without nukes.

To further ease your mind If I aggregate what I remember was said by israeli officials over the past year about the possible war, it would go something like this: - a 3-front war with Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas (basically what we had just now, multiplied and from all directions) - estimated to last for about a month or slightly longer - 300-500 civilian casualties, some estimates reaching higher - damage estimated at around $50 billion - up to 5% reduction in the economy as a result from both direct damage and people not able to work, etc., So overall a pretty serious matter. Still, compared to Iran getting a nuke and possibly using it (as remote as that possibility may seem) - no more than very minor inconveniences. Not a given at all. I'm sure that all of the iranian leadership realizes very well the difference between a war with Israel and a war with the US. Swapping missiles with Israel is one thing, worst that can happen to Iran in this case is loss of nuclear facilities and a setback in research. Start a fight with Uncle Sam and you just might get bitch slapped so hard that the next thing you know, you're being dragged out of some hole in the ground to be hanged. Big difference there. Welcome to the Middle East my friend - I see you've realized what it's all about and summed it up quite nicely

No, the IDF KIA was from a rocket attack on a kibbutz near Gaza, not within the strip. Arty fire maybe, but no movement of troops into Gaza yet.

Bunch of IDF pics by Meir Azulai: http://kador.livejournal.com/1355211.html Almost no armor, but some cute girls

He does not, but the situation is volatile enough that he can (if he'll want to) pretty easily set on a course of action that will lead to war. Things like that aren't exactly unheard of

I haven't seen the documentary, the link you posted says "not available in your country" or something to that effect. But I wouldn't exactly take it at face value, especially if it's based on the reports I think it's based on - namely by Richard Silverstein (he sings a very similar sounding tune). The relevant israeli officials, homefront CO's and ministers, have said numerous times that war with Iran would be 'difficult', 'costly', with hundreds or thousands of casualties on our side (one estimated ~3,000 killed). I don't think anyone on the israeli side is looking at bombing Iran as a gold plated option, don't think I've heard anyone saying it's a good solution - although it might be inevitable. But, we're not in the "ein breira" state of mind yet, despite all of the posturing, the cornered rat mentality hasn't overtaken the political leadership yet. It might happen, but it hasn't come to that yet. Finally, Iran is really quite limited in their options of directly attacking Israel itself. They can shoot a few hundreds of Shahabs at us, and it would be pretty bad, but it would be a quantitative difference compared to what's happening today already, not a qualitative one. The real danger lies in their control of Hezballah and Hamas, combined war on two fronts at the same time can potentially shut down most of the country and probably displace over a million israelis. And of course they can really fuck up the world's economy with some well-placed mine fields. Not to get too far off-topic (on tank-net? heavens forbid ), I think that external influence definitely had an effect on USSR's collapse, but did not cause it. It probably hastened it somewhat, by how much probably no one could tell... my gut feeling would be, by years, probably not decades. Dude they're not event remotely close. Well, except for the TSA maybe, these guys are definitely getting there This is not existential for Iran unless they make it so by attacking US assets in the Gulf and/or blockading the Straits. Which might be one of the reasons that documentary claims our brass thinks they won't do it. Almost every US-Israel military exercise includes an Aegis off the coast, here's the most recent one: http://www.examiner....raig-a-franklin Now that doesn't mean it will actually happen in wartime, but I'd say it's pretty likely.

It's definitely on a much larger scale (no secrets here, anyone can look up online news from then) and began much sooner - in 2008 mobilization started as the regular brigades were already entering Gaza. Still doesn't mean there will be a ground op at all, a few tens of thousands of soldiers standing at the gates ready to pummel your ass is a nice incentive for better cease-fire conditions. It's expensive for sure, but dead bodies are worse. On the other hand, Bibi & Barak will not do well in the upcoming elections if there won't be any results from this at all (no, Jabari doesn't count). The name of the game is, are we going to run out of Tamirs before they run out of Qassams, Grads, and Fajrs? We can make more, but their supply tunnels haven't been cut off yet either. I'm pretty sure this pic is a few years old, I think I saw that blanket before Here's a couple more pics from the Golans:

It takes an entire country to build a nuclear weapon and its delivery systems, but once that's done, it might take less than a dozen men to authorize its launch. I somehow doubt that once in possession of a nuke, Ahmadinejad will run a nation-wide referendum on whether to use it or not. Also remember that despite their differences, Khamenei personally authorized Ahmadinejad to be a candidate in the presidential elections - twice.

Curiously enough, the supposed leaked Israeli plan of the attack on Iran specifies the use of something that sounds very much like BLU-114/B to disrupt the Iranian electrical grid in the first phase.

That's true, but it assumes a luxury Israel might not have - time. Also, having been born in the USSR, let me assure you the Soviet Union did most of its own internal subversion. It collapsed not because of voice of America broadcasts, but due to its - fittingly - enormous inefficiency at most things imaginable. Basically, it was a system that was unable to support itself.

I cannot imagine Morsi will do anything that crazy. Of course, this is a region where crazy shit happens twice a day and four times after friday prayers, but still, moving the egyptian army into Sinai right now is a level of crazy I personally don't believe Morsi will reach. Aside from rhetoric, he's got nothing to gain and everything to lose. Moreover, even if such an order is given, I'm not so sure the army generals would comply. And eeeven if they do move a division or two into the Sinai, IDF will not open fire first. They'd have to actively engage the IDF if they want their asses kicked. There is a good reason to watch the Sinai though, there are heavily armed, very loosely AQ-affiliated bands of beduins there roaming the countryside freely, and Iran may well pay them to stir shit up in support of Hamas. Some of it will go to Rafah and Khan Yunis to cut off resupply, but probably not a lot. Judging by what happened every time before, the bulk of the force will go into the northern section of the strip: Beit Hanun / Beit Lahyah and then on to Jabalya. The rest will take Deir al-Balah / Nuseirat to split the strip into two or three parts and restrict movement between them. Again, if Cast Lead is any indication, the IDF will then start tightening the noose around Gaza-city, and then it's up to whatever Bibi and Obama can work out. Map for reference: http://upload.wikime...ip_may_2005.jpg All of that said, call up of reservists does not yet guarantee a ground op. P.S. Egyptian prime minister Hisham Kandil was in Gaza yesterday, meeting with 'prime minister' Haniyeh at Hamas' HQ in Gaza-city. After he left, the IAF promptly reduced the HQ to rubble last night. I suppose that was a message. Edit: formatting got screwed up.

I'd guess that a lot of those will probably actually go north, rather than south. Just in case.

We're not going to have early elections after all, we now have a 'national unity' government with the 'opposition' joining the government coalition effective immediately. Guess what that means for Iran now...

I'd wager the lebanese cell network will be one of the very first things to go down right in the opening minutes of the next round. Probably along with the entire power gird for good measure. In fact, if Cast Lead is any indication at all, we'll be jamming everything so hard that car remotes won't work in Damascus. Anyway, that little war, as much as a clusterfuck as it was on all levels, did have one positive side effect: they now know we can still go apeshit without warning if you screw with us once too many (and not even we know exactly how many is that), and whoever ends up on the receiving end will have a very unpleasant experience. Even if our leaders have the strategic talents of a bunch of apes.

It's a sort of a pun. "Voennoplennyie" is "prisoners of war", "voina" = "war". "Vonyaplennie" is literally "stink prisoners", "von'" = "stink" or "stench". Sanitation crews hosing streets in Moscow after german POW's were marched through them were apparently a 'feature' (as opposed to a 'bug' cause the prisoners had diarrhea), meaning they did it on purpose every time, sorta driving the 'cleansing the motherland of the dirty invaders' point in the most literal way possible.

The rifle looks more like K98 than G98 to me, which would make it anachronistic

Bunch of AFVs here: http://plasmastik.livejournal.com/768268.html

The thing is, in the end not much will change, at least not in the short run. All of the candidates for Mubarak's replacement are basically his clones, with very minor differences: El Baradei, Suleiman, or Amr Musa are all just more of the same. El Baradei is somewhat worse for the West and especially Israel, Suleiman is better, but nothing drastic is going to happen if either one of them ends up being the new president. The Muslim Brotherhood is not going to take over, and they're not interested to even try at this stage. They support El Baradei but mostly because the other option, Suleiman, is their worst enemy. No matter who forms the "new" government, there won't be a shooting war with Israel in the near future. At the same time, it's a shortsighted mistake to think that in the long run the army will be always able to prevent Egypt from sliding into fundamentalism. Especially bringing Turkey as an example really shows ignorance of the current state of affairs in Turkey. Erdogan managed to radicalize Turkey and it's much too late for the army to do shit about it at this point. The Muslim Brotherhood is probably the biggest threat to the western civilization in the arab/muslim world, there is not a single sunni terrorist organization that does not trace its roots back to the Brotherhood. It doesn't have to be an openly militant organization itself - they just breed terrorists like rabbits. For now, they represent probably about 20% of the egyptian population, and they realize its too early for them to attempt to make Egypt into Iran*, but they're well on their way. *Especially since they probably look at Iran, see that most of the people there are not religious fanatics even if their government is, and realize the importance of having a wider support base.

Terrible to hear... my most sincere condolences. Thou the man is gone I'm sure his legacy, including Tank-net, will live on. RIP.

Meanwhile, the russians are working on new and improved RPGs.