Sinistar

even the knowns get you if you ignore them whether because you are not seeing the connection or you do not want to believe what you are seeing the drone warfare in ukraine i think illustrates this concept because i think that either war planners or policy makers still even fail to detect what that is doing they either do not believe what they are seeing- the patterns that are becoming more apparent by what this is doing with the combination of surveillance drones integrating into decision making and used as weapons themselves and the cope cages appearing which is to say there was these ideas that only impotent parties use drones and cope cages and this is all a big joke if a 'real' army went to war in this environment it would not look like that for some reason send in the m1 tanks and it would no work like that if someone can demonstrate patterns which occur more than random chance ormore than just a statistical freak and even look reliable if not certain but either they do not 'predict' the desired outcome or the conclusion is politically incorrect then what you call 'known' or 'unknown' becomes the same thing you see pundits and decision makers and experts in military and foreign policy making all kinds of absurd statements that are not corroborating the patterns in the actual battles or vice versa or even within the economic dimension with what they are stating to be the case and what the patterns seem to be indicating- sanctions are often a great example because they virtually never seem to cause states to change behaviors or do something different than what they are doing since you seem them applied to so many states and do not somehow change these regimes to whatever direction they are supposed to go with those there were patterns even early on which showed that attackers in this war generally were exposed which were being ignored these patterns were showing up on both sides but because of the reporting of this war only tended to show battles where russians getting the worst end of it and not happening to the ukrainians it seems to be informing a lot of the discussion that ukraine was in better shape than it was or was winning the war or that only that when the russians attempted offensives it looks like that the warnings were already there before 2023 when in 2022 the ukrainians were taking heavy losses and about what the odds for ukraine would like if they were going to attempt to break through the surovikin lines even the leaked documents showed that there was deep skepticism which looked quite contrary to the narrative be what these same leaders were saying openly under oath to us congress or from official press releases at the pentagon

you might want to see something which occurred early in the war in 2022 zelensky says something quite odd in an interview right around the time zelensky is considering negotiations with russia in istanbul before biden sends boris johnson in and tells zelensky to scrap negotiations zelensky is outlining why he thinks outside parties behave in the ways they are behaving and seems to indicate that some of his allies are using ukraine as a proxy zelensky on the one hand actually knows that he is in deep trouble early on in the conflict he has to put on a brave appearance which is understandable but looking back at this and then look forward at what basically seals ukraine's fate in the current direction

you are incapable of looking at yourself and what you look like- literally: 'either say that ukarine wins a lost battle or you are a russian propagandist. ignore that ukraine is being systematically destroyed and that russia is in retreat or else you are a russian propagandist. ignore the fact that the regime you call churchill blatantly steals money given to them by donors meant to help their country or else you are a russian propagandist.' there is simply no one more wrong than you anywhere on this board and who doubles down none who is more hollow than an NPC creature which does that you should look at what cities like kostiantynivka look like- they are annihilated and this is what is going to keep happening the russians are probably going to capture and / or destroy zaporizhzhia- which is no backwater town though many of the west probably never heard of it and it does not really register to them the scope of what that means which works in your favor and that of your government as they continue to hug it out at their ribbon cutting ceremonies and parties before the cameras and promise victory we can literally match up the images and the maps of these annihilated oblasts and match them up to your narratives and show you just how out to lunch you really are- which may as well be the propaganda coming out of downing street and the MSM which also does not do much but carry the narrative

it is a woman thing women routinely study relationships and the psychology of gender dynamics and show much more interested in it than men which is no accident that is why they are the feminists and even attempt to tell everyone that it is about equality when the very name FEMINism should tell you that something is wrong with that they play these games which are meant to raise the perception of their own attractiveness and their own social capital or position in the hierarchy by projecting themselves as aloof and supposedly so mysterious and impossible to understand telling you essentially men are invisible to them and lower than scum is what they are doing and men have been falling for it for a long time it is essentially childish / high school behaviors that the females have been perfecting since they are young but they do not leave it behind in school it goes on- basically they are sugar and spice and everything nice while boys are snails and puppy dog tails but when this reaches adulthood the games have evolved into something much more serious and weaponized or politicized at the society wide scale so while males are usually learning with games with specific targets and goals the females learn from role playing with dolls and experimenting with manipulative character performance and have an inherent advantage if males do not detect these behaviors only when they reach adulthood they are large and in charge empowered appear to be profound when the performance is actually very transparent and quite vapid if men would just ignore it instead of trying to figure out what is so mysterious about it or agreeing to this role they are assigning them then they lose all power over men but this never seems to happen as enough men still give it too much credit how many times do you see these actresses come out later denigrating all their male co-stars and directors and bosses and then usually on the way to start applying that to men in general if not already it is the women and typically feminine men always inventing new categories of sexual orientation to call themselves as if there is some kind of depth to this runs like clockwork and which makes them look like NPC characters running on a script once you understand it

highly unlikely other states could go into wartime emergency without the russians taking notice of it you could not mask some major escalation like that since you cannot simply pull a lever and a corps - sized group manifests suddenly in ukraine the russians would not even need any sophisticated surveillance or intelligence penetration into these societies since it would be broadcast all over the place on social media, traditional news outlets and everyone who has a smart device and an internet connection would all be reporting that world war III is about to be underway states like libya or iraq could see these moves just by watching the news or listening to conversations among politicians or messages communicated to their citizens and understand something is coming it is just that they could not do much about it while it was building up and preparing for it russia sees all this and might yank these countries' ambasadors in to explain themselves and give them one last chance to call it off if it continues or if their missions and their embassies close down then russia has the choice to start preempting with waves of missiles which start hitting military civilian- infrastructure support and leadership targets before any of that even lands in ukraine likewise whatever return volleys western europe among those which have the range or can manage will assumed to be nuclear armed

what does it look like you are talking about different states within the ussr / warsaw pact each with different capabilities, budgets and so on rather than it behaving the same across the board east germany for example is the economic powerhouse of the bloc outside of russia and has different capabilities than say hungary hence you also see the difference in procurements across members states rather than it all being uniform russian manufactured equipment having different quality or different capabilities than licensed and locally manufactured vehicles it does not behave all the same like it is often conceived in idealistic terms someone might have exact figures for budgets or allocation priorities but i am saying that would mean it is not as if all warsaw pact members received standard units across the board and some as you know are operating equipment not per se up the same standard of others

at the very least there is the basic problem that individual members are either buying this equipment within their own budgets or producing domestically under license to varying degrees and quality rather than operating as if it is all the same it would not work the same way per se as the united states which does not operate under this same kind arrangement except with regards to inter-service procurement channels- active duty vs. guard or reserve or USMC which are behind the curve or are fielding older equipment

starlight amplifiers were known to be used in the iran iraq war on about the same quality you see the west using because active IR illuminators are already intrinsic to vehicle design on the bloc side i do not think they are entirely unknown or dismissed by ussr / warsaw pact though they may have regarded passive thermals as similar in capability or not as much a leap ahead to matter which would be obviously wrong

i frequently argue with roman when he makes these sorts of equations

i do not follow your point unless you are trying to suggest that maidan was a russian operation in that case we might have the oscar nomination for screenplay

appeasement if you do not stop them now then that is what you are doing you should do it now because if not then you will be fighting the russians in poland sooner or later why wait why not self destruct now and get it over with

when do you suppose poland is going to switch gears from surrender monkeyism and actually do something and lead the way how long do you think you are going to last

you see you do finally have the scruples to admit it you really believe that maidan was somehow a spontaneous thing without us involvement in it it was somehow trying to save yanukovich out of the blue i will say this at least you know who yanukovich and victoria nuland are most of the time the average citizen muppet never heard of maidan at all

you are playing a hand that you do not have you are not talking about appeasing states like iraq or syria or libya or yugoslavia if you get your way what do you suppose happens when russia begins lighting up polish cities if it joins the war you are going to make an article V election and demnd allies help while your country spins into chaos if the europeans decide to form up an expeditionary force- maybe 50,000 troops or so then you watch what happens when long range missiles start trading across europe where is the united states in all of this i am not sure there will not be much we can do to help you if you intend on committing suicide but to try and de-escalate and talking sense with parties but you see how it works with negotiations over ukraine the europeans actually are jonesing for something other than that they send out signals that they want a resolution only to repeatedly and consistently reject it as if you could not see that coming after a half dozen times that looks intentional

while you ignore nuland in the gathering crowds materializing in kyiv like a rent a mob scheme with us politicians making speeches egging on the unrest against yanukovich but suddenly concerned with the fate of yanukovich in all of this your movie makes no sense go back to the editing room let us tie off this plot hole and assume this really was going on that nuland actually cares about what happens to yanukovich whether there is some kind of 'compromise' here you still have all your work ahead of you in your denialism because you see clearly the aim is a change regime operation occurs which leads directly to the civil war in ukraine and where it ends up in 2022 as a result of that now who pays the price when the neocons lose again- well ukraine for one and europe if they keep it up